Global Gas Markets: Living Without Russian Gas

The global gas market has undergone fundamental changes this past year. This year will be the first full calendar year of minimal Russian pipeline flows to Europe. The reshaping of gas flows in Europe will have consequences for the rest of the global gas market.

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1. Global LNG: The level of US projects reaching FID in 2023 is expected to set a new record for any market.
2. North America: In the US, beyond the 93 MMtpa in operation today and the 39 MMtpa under construction, an additional 104 MMtpa of export capacity is in various stages of development.
3. Latin America: Mexico will soon become a net LNG exporter, with FLNG Altamira on the Gulf Coast starting exports toward the end of 2023.
4. Europe: Europe is expected to start the injection season with above 50% storage levels this year.
5. Eurasia: The decline in Russia’s pipeline deliveries to Europe will not be offset by exports to China or LNG anytime soon.
6. Australia: Declines in legacy southeast Australia production, limited north-to-south pipeline capacity, and Queensland LNG export commitments have created concerns of supply shortfalls in the highly populated southeast markets.
7. China: Coal-to-gas policy, the key driver behind Chinese gas demand growth in recent years, is taking a back seat behind economic growth stability and energy supply security.
8. South Asia: Affordability of spot LNG is a key determining factor to determine gas demand growth in South Asia.
9. Southeast Asia: Vietnam and the Philippines are waiting for the opportune moment to join the LNG importing club this year.